On Abkhazia

Several weeks ago, Georgia intercepted a Turkish merchant vessel bound for Abkhazia. They then put the captain on trial and sentenced him to 24 years in prison (Only after the Turkish foreign minister visited did they agree to release him.). This was followed by bellicose statements towards Abkhazia.  If there is a more self-defeating posture Georgia could take, I would be surprised. It looks like Georgia hopes that Abkhazia and South Ossetia will fail, but that is not going to happen. That should be obvious after Russia announced they would spend $500 million for the security and defense of Abkhazia.

Anyone with knowledge of the Caucasus, except the Georgian nationalists, knows that these regions are not going to be reintegrated. And it appears to me that the Georgian nationalists were part of the problem in the first place. Reportedly, they wanted to limit the number of "guests" (i.e those who were not Georgian or, I think, Mingrelian) in the Republic of Georgia to 5% in the period before the two countries declared their independence.  This would be very threatening to an Abkhazian or South Ossetian.

It seems to me that a better posture would have been to accept some sort of autonomy in 1992 or even in 1995 after the wars, and to create a "Transcaucasian Economic and Security Zone" with the other governments in the region. Perhaps with time, there could have been normal relations and Georgia could have participated in their economic development. Maybe it would not have worked, but it seems to me that what they are doing is guaranteed not to work. They are driving the Ossetians and Abkazians right to Russia for aid and protection.But the man on the street in the U.S. thought that the conflict last year was about Georgia's independence. Senator John McCain's "We are all Georgians" was a terribly uninformed statement. "We" might be, but I am pretty sure that the Ossetians and Abkhazians don't think that they are. They have strong national identities, their own cultures and languages.  Georgia is seen as colonizer and oppressor, but Russia and the Russians are seen very favorably.

The common American view has been that Georgia's "territorial integrity" is at issue. But Georgia did not spring fully formed from the ether in the shape that President Saakashvili is trying to resurrect. The modern borders of Georgia were decided by Josef Stalin after the South Caucusus was brought back into Moscow's orbit following the chaos of the revolution and civil war. So a Georgian running the Soviet Union drew the borders and moved Georgians into the two regions.

I thought it was amusing that McCain and former President Bush were supporting Stalin on the issue. But I never saw anyone in the media point it out.

I know several Abkhazians very well and despite years of American support for Georgia, my experience has been that Abkhazians view Americans favorably. U.S. recognition would lead to quicker reconstruction (and investment opportunities for American firms) in the region, enhanced American prestige and better relations with Russia. I suppose Georgia won't like it, but I don't think that they are going to shut the oil off.