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Friday
Apr082011

World Russia Forum, Washington D.C. March 29 - 30, 2011

I attended the World Russia Forum in Washington D.C. last week.  The Forum, which is run by Ed Lozansky, commemoriated the 50th anniversay of Yuri Gagarin's voyage as the first man in space on April 12, 1961. This year's program included speakers Konstantin Kosachev, the Chairman of the Russian Duma's Committee on Foreign Affairs, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Perle, Duma deputy Dr. Sergei Markov, Congressman Dana Rohrabacher and Dr. Robert Legvold.

The first afternoon, Chairman Kosachev's spoke on the issues facing Russian- American relations and the refusal by his Congressional counterpart, Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, to meet with him.  He pointed out issues the Russian government would like to raise with the U.S. Government.  Richard Perle followed with an angry, shocking and finger waving diatribe against Russia and seemed to personally blame Mr. Kosachev for all. For some reason, he was very offended by Mr. Kosachev's comments, which came across as respectful in tone.

Mr. Perle said that the recent START missile treaty was a waste of time and a retreat to "Cold War" era thinking because the U.S. and Russia are no longer ideological enemies.  It was a neat rhetorical trick, considering he and his neocon cohorts have been accused of exactly that- trying to return the US to Cold War policies towards Russia.  Mr. Perle said he believes that reducing the number of nuclear weapons is a waste of time. But can a reasonable person argue that fewer nuclear weapons and reduced tensions is not worthwhile? There was no awareness on Perle's part that the aggressive neocon thinking and resulting American foreign policy during the Bush Administration was threatening to Russian security.  And that the tensions that resulted pushed us closer to a new "Cold War" than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union.  He also said that the Jackson- Vanik Amendment, which had been much discussed at the Forum, is not applicable to Russia.  Perle also decried the Khodorkovsky trial and imprisonment.  Khodorkovsky has been raised as a human rights issue, but Perle seems unaware that Khodorkovsky was on the radar screen of Lee Wolosky, the man who launched the hunt for international arms dealer Viktor Bout.  Wolosky felt 10 years ago that Khodorkovsky was a bigger threat to American security than Bout and accused him of the very crimes that he was convicted of last year.  So, Khodorkovsky is not Andre Sakharov.

Mr. Perle's speech, while provocative, was also embarassingly inappropriate.  I wondered (and I was not the only one) how someone with an obvious problem containing his temper in a public forum could rise to a high position in government, whatever his intellectual qualifications.

After Mr. Perle's turn at the podium, the audience was given the chance to ask him and Mr. Kosachev questions.  My question to Mr. Perle:  "American policy in the Caucasus is heavily influenced by the Republic of Georgia.  You have said that there are two sides to every issue, but the U.S. Government does not listen to the Republic of Abkhazia's positions.  How can the U.S. have an informed policy on this important region without input from one of the players?"

Mr. Perle replied that "we are talking to them."  This is false and I stated so.  Mr. Perle then said that "we know what they are thinking."  I think most know this is not a substitute for dilplomacy. His answer fell flat and Lozansky mercifully took the podium.   It was a surprising exchange to me because Mr. Perle seemed to be unaware of the situation in Abkhazia.  I expected him to reply with the position that his fellow neocon thinkier, Randy Scheunemann, and Senator John McCain have taken on Georgian territorial integrity, which conveniently and hypocritically ignores a very analogous situation in Kosovo.

There was a positive reaction from the audience to my question and several approached me to say that I had asked a question no one seemed to be asking and that Russians could not effectively raise because no one in Washington listens to them on the subject of the Caucasus.

Later that evening, I went to the Russian Embassy for a reception.  It was a pleasant evening with a lot of, Russian and American attendees of the Forum.  However, people were still talking about Perle's speech.  It is not hard to see how people like this can lead America down an aggressive and confrontational path towards Russia.  There is a double standard applied to Russia when compared to their statements on other nations. Fortunately is no longer the norm in American foreign policy.  Our policy is formulated based upon pragmatism, rather than the zero-sum, confrontational and ideologically rigid, neocon policies that soured our relations with Russia in the last decade. 

 

Friday
Feb252011

AbkhaziaWatch Newsletter

I am writing the first ever newsletter on the Republic of Abkhazia.  The newsletter, published weekly, contains information on business, economics, politics, current events, culture and tourism.  Subscribers include journalists, foreign policy experts and those interested in current events in the Caucasus, tourists and businesspeople.

Please subscribe to AbkhaziaWatch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday
Feb192011

Abkhazia Projects

The Republic of Abkhazia needs investment to develop economically.  I am hearing that academics, journalists and foreign policy experts recognize that there shouldbe a dialogue with Abkhazia and that business and political ties need to be fostered.  Without this Abkhazia, remains isolated and this is does not promote peace, prosperity and stability in the region.  There is no question that Russia and Russian investors recognize what is obvious to me:  Abkhazia is ripe for development.  However, if the only outside investors are Russian, Abkhazia will not develop as quickly.  There needs to be money from a larger universe of investors and the Abkhaz authorities recognize this.

 

 

I see a number of great opportunities in Abkhazia.  A large, international infrastructure investment group contacted me last year.  They pointed out that the airport in Sukhum has an excellent geographic location and with the longest runway in the Caucasus it would be ideal for an international "hub and spoke" airport with flights on to Central Asia, the Persian Gulf and Russia.  

The port in Sukhum needs to be redeveloped also.  Currently, there are only Turkish merchant vessels docking there.  However, as Abkhazia grows ( reportedly the economy nearly doubled in 2009), there will be more trade and the small, out-dated facility needs to be rebuilt.

 

Abkhazia sits just across the border from the site of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia.  Sochi will also host Formula 1 Racing starting in 2014 and World Cup football matches will be played there in 2018.  Sochi will be an international destination because of this and because of the appeal to beach-goers and skiers.  Because of its proximity to Sochi and the large number of Russian tourists who view it as the a subtropical vacation paradise, Abkhazia needs many hotels to replace the aged Soviet built structure on its beaches.   One of the most intriguing locations is Pitsunda, a few miles from Gagra.  The Soviet-era resort there sits on about 82 acres of beachfront property and with nearly 3,000 rooms is the largest resort in the country.  Views from the property include not only the beaches, but the spectacular snow-covered (even in hot summer) Caucasus Mountains.  

Abkhazia is also considering allowing Russian citizens the right to buy apartments.  When that happens, a lot of people will view it as an attractive place to own a vacation home.  There are good locations available to buy and build.

In the border zone, there are great locations available to build hotels.  Russia is planning to rebuild the border crossing to accommodate more cross border traffic and trade.  This will  make these locations that are only a few kilometers for the Olympic Village and the Formula ! course very attractive.

The mountains are a big draw for summertime tourism, but the winter potential of the Caucasus is even greater with skiing.  At this moment, there are no ski resorts in Abkhazia.  However, the mountains reach from the sea to altitudes of over 13,000 feet.  There are several potential ski resort locations close to the border with Russia and further down the coast.

Abkhazia shares the hydroelectric power station at Inguri with Georgia.  This provides the electricity for the country and about 40% of Georgia's electricity.  There is significant untapped potential in Abkhazia's rivers.  The Russian oil company, Rosneft,which recently sold a state to BP, is working on a site on Abkhazia's coastal shelft that is supposed to be significant.  The impact to Abkhazia s unknown, but probably significant.

This is only a small sample of the projects in the Republic of Abkhazia.

 

Wednesday
Feb162011

Caucasus Mountains and Sochi

This morning I flew from Sochi to Moscow.  It was colder than usual in Sochi, but it was clear and the views of the snow-covered mountains were great.  Our flight path took the airplane over the Caucasus Mountains and the home of the Alpine events for the 2014 Winter Olympiad.

 

Tuesday
Feb152011

Abkhazia- Sochi

Over the last few days there has been an unusually strong storm in the region.  Typically winters are mild along the Russian Riviera and on Abkhazia's coast.  However, several days ago a Zanzibar flagged, Turkish owned ship broke apart off Sochi's beaches.  Last night an unusually substantial snowfall blanketed Abkhazia's coastal lowlands from Novy Afon to near Gagra.  Today was warmer and the snow will soon be gone,