Crossing into Abkhazia

I arrived in Sochi early this afternoon and will cross the border into Abkhazia later today.  The border is only about 20 miles from Sochi's center.

Preparations are in the final stages for the Sochi Economic Forum which will be held from September 17- 20.  The Forum is one of two held each year in Russia.   Governmental and business leaders from all over Russia and the world attend.  Sochi has a great deal of significance because of the growth in the region and the 2014 Winter Olympiad, which will be held here.  Prime Minister Putin has a dacha outside of Sochi in the mountains at Krasnaya Polyana.  The alpine events are to be held nearby.

I should be able to post from Abkhazia and I will add photos from the trip later.  I expect to return to Sochi later in the week to fly to Moscow for meetings.

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Abkhazia hopes for Turkish recognition

This week's visit by a high level Turkish diplomat  has  raised hopes of official recognition by Turkey.   The Abkhazian Diapora in Turkey numbers about 500,000 and they are pressing for closer ties.  Abkhazia would like to see direct transportation links as well as aid and trade.  The situation is complicated for Turkey.  They have close ties with Georgia;  their citizens can use Georgian airports without a passport.    So,  Turkey  has not changed its official policy on recognition of Georgia's borders.   But Abkhazia would like Turkey to mediate the sea blockade that Georgia maintains.   Russia, which supports Abkhazia, is a huge trade partner for Turkey.  At least the visit is a hopeful sign.

On Abkhazia

Several weeks ago, Georgia intercepted a Turkish merchant vessel bound for Abkhazia. They then put the captain on trial and sentenced him to 24 years in prison (Only after the Turkish foreign minister visited did they agree to release him.). This was followed by bellicose statements towards Abkhazia.  If there is a more self-defeating posture Georgia could take, I would be surprised. It looks like Georgia hopes that Abkhazia and South Ossetia will fail, but that is not going to happen. That should be obvious after Russia announced they would spend $500 million for the security and defense of Abkhazia.

Anyone with knowledge of the Caucasus, except the Georgian nationalists, knows that these regions are not going to be reintegrated. And it appears to me that the Georgian nationalists were part of the problem in the first place. Reportedly, they wanted to limit the number of "guests" (i.e those who were not Georgian or, I think, Mingrelian) in the Republic of Georgia to 5% in the period before the two countries declared their independence.  This would be very threatening to an Abkhazian or South Ossetian.

It seems to me that a better posture would have been to accept some sort of autonomy in 1992 or even in 1995 after the wars, and to create a "Transcaucasian Economic and Security Zone" with the other governments in the region. Perhaps with time, there could have been normal relations and Georgia could have participated in their economic development. Maybe it would not have worked, but it seems to me that what they are doing is guaranteed not to work. They are driving the Ossetians and Abkazians right to Russia for aid and protection.But the man on the street in the U.S. thought that the conflict last year was about Georgia's independence. Senator John McCain's "We are all Georgians" was a terribly uninformed statement. "We" might be, but I am pretty sure that the Ossetians and Abkhazians don't think that they are. They have strong national identities, their own cultures and languages.  Georgia is seen as colonizer and oppressor, but Russia and the Russians are seen very favorably.

The common American view has been that Georgia's "territorial integrity" is at issue. But Georgia did not spring fully formed from the ether in the shape that President Saakashvili is trying to resurrect. The modern borders of Georgia were decided by Josef Stalin after the South Caucusus was brought back into Moscow's orbit following the chaos of the revolution and civil war. So a Georgian running the Soviet Union drew the borders and moved Georgians into the two regions.

I thought it was amusing that McCain and former President Bush were supporting Stalin on the issue. But I never saw anyone in the media point it out.

I know several Abkhazians very well and despite years of American support for Georgia, my experience has been that Abkhazians view Americans favorably. U.S. recognition would lead to quicker reconstruction (and investment opportunities for American firms) in the region, enhanced American prestige and better relations with Russia. I suppose Georgia won't like it, but I don't think that they are going to shut the oil off.

Venezuela recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia

September 10 in Moscow, President Hugo Chavez announced that Venezuela will give formal recognition to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  I wonder if Cuba and maybe Bolivia will soon follow.  I have read that Belarus and Syria are considering the move, also.

A Brief History of (Abkhazian) Time

By Bruce Talley


2008 Events

The August 2008 conflict in South Ossetia was the first time that many in the West were aware of either South Ossetia or Abkhazia.  Both regions fought bloody wars of independence with Georgia in the aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet Union.  Between 1992 -94 thousands died. There were allegations of atrocities and ethnic cleansing on both sides.  Buildings and infrastructure suffered great damage.   Abkhazia and South Ossetia both later declared their independence.  Georgia has refused to recognize them and has enforced an economic blockade to force reintegration.   The international community, with the exception of Russia, has turned a blind eye. Without widespread international recognition, the airports are closed, the economies have stagnated and the people live in poverty.

History of Abkhazia

Abkhazia has a long history.  It is a small country on the southeast shores of the Black Sea.  With dramatic mountain scenery, beautiful beaches and a subtropical climate it has been a destination for travelers since the era of ancient Greece.  An Abkhazian Kingdom was established there more than 1,000 years ago.  When the Abkhazian region was absorbed by the Russian Empire in the 19^th Century many Abkhazian Muslims fled to Turkey, where there is still a sizeable Diaspora.  Those who remained in Abkhazia were mostly Christian.   In the chaos following the Russian Revolution of 1917, the South Caucasus region was briefly included in an independent state.  Eventually, the Soviet Union established control.  Later, the Soviet dictator, Josef Stalin, a Georgian, decided that Abkhazia should be included in the borders of the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic.  The Georgian S.S.R. was one of the 15 republics that constituted the Soviet Union.  However, power still devolved from Moscow.  During this period the Soviet government moved thousands of ethnic Georgians into Abkhazia.

Unique during Soviet times, Abkhazians protested to be given Republic status and, while remaining an integral part of the Soviet Union, to be outside of Georgia’s borders.

After the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, only the 15 Soviet Republics were allowed to apply for recognition by the United Nations.  So Russia, Ukraine, Georgia and others could apply, but Abkhazia could not.  This meant that Abkhazia was condemned to be included inside the borders of a nation that many residents viewed as an occupier.

Effectively, the United Nations accepted Josef Stalin’s decision on Georgia’s borders.

What really happened in 2008?

The overwhelming narrative in the Western press since the August 2008 conflict was that Russia invaded Georgia.

Events do not agree.

Mikhail Saakashvili was reelected President of Georgia in 2008 on a promise of reintegration of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

August 8, the day of the start of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, Georgia shelled Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia.  Russian peacekeepers, who had been in place since the conflict of the mid 1990’s, and hundreds of Ossetian civilians were killed.  OSCE monitors have stated that they believed that Georgia started the conflict with indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia have significant Russian minorities and have long looked to Russia for protection.  Despite President Saakashvili’s apparent belief to the contrary, it was absolutely predictable that Russia would respond militarily.

Condition of Abkhazia and Ossetia Today

In the aftermath, Russia and Nicaragua became the first nations to officially recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia.   Widespread recognition will bring investment and rebuilt infrastructure.  Tourism and economic development will follow.  There is no reason for Abkhazian citizens to live in poverty when their country has so many natural advantages.

I support international recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.