BarCamp Krasnodar

American Tim Post organized Krasnodar's first BarCamp.  The event was held yesterday at Kuban State University and was a success from the viewpoint of all the participants I spoke to you.   Bar Camp brought together entrepreneurs, designers, programmers and investors from all over Russia  One participant that I spoke to, an investor and a serious individual by any standard, told me that he saw several very exciting ideas that he thought merited a very close look.

I was also told that Tim pulled off what no Russian had been able to do in Krasnodar:  He was able to put together a user-generated conference that was attended by at least 200 participants.  The conference garnered media attention and will bring the spotlight in Russia on some of the unique ideas and contributions that Krasnodar's web and technological community has to offer.

Turkey Emerges as Major Regional Player

I have just read an excellent article from the China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 7, No. 4 (2009) pp. 73-94 entitled  Between Russia and the West: Turkey as an Emerging Power and the Case of Abkhazia 

The writer is Laurent Vinatier, PhD, Institute of Political Studies, Paris, France, is Research Fellow at Bilgi University, Istanbul, Turkey.  He has a deep understanding of the conflicts in the Caucasus and Turkey's potential role as a mediator between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh.  Mr. Vinatier also writes about Turkey , Russia, Georgia and Abkhazia.  He seems to have a good understanding of the role of the Abkhaz diaspora, too. Mr. Vinatier feels that Turkey's role as an important regional player will grow since it has a proactive foreign policy and it sits at an important energy crossroads between the Middle East and Europe.

I have felt for some time that Turkey is an a very interesting position.  Their government has developed a "zero problems with neighbors" policy that seems to be very effective and they are a natural go between with Iran.  The writer feels that Turkey will have an increasing role to play in the Black and Caspian Sea Regions, along with Russia and Iran.  I think anyone with an interest in the region should read this.  It is the best I have read on the subject.  Please note that the entire quarterly publication is worth reading, there is fascinating reading on Central Asia, but the section dealing with the Caucasus Region begins on page 73.

Scathing Critique of Saakashavili by US Foreign Policy Analyst

Yesterday I read a very good post by James Jatras, a former Foreign Policy Analyst and US Foreign Service Officer.  The post was entitled "The Georgian Imbroglio- And a Choice for the United States".  I recommend that anyone interested in the Caucasus read his column.  In it, Mr. Jatras points out that Abkhazia and South Ossetia have long struggled for independence from Georgia and that there is a better legal case for their independence than that of Kosovo (I personally support this, also), which the U.S. has already recognized.  He then details Georgian President Saakashvili's order to attack South Ossetia in August, 2008 which he feels was done to distract the Georgian electorate from the economic problems, human rights abuses and corruption under his administration.  Mr. Jatras notes what is widely accepted in Russia, that Saakashvili has been harboring and aiding jihadists who are active in nearby Dagestan and Chechnya.  He also poses the question "what stake does the United States have in backing Saakashvili’s increasingly unpopular regime in any new adventure – especially if it derails progress the Obama Administration has made in “resetting” our relationship with Russia?"

Saakashvili has no credibility with either Russia or the Republic of Abkhazia.  President Bagapsh of Abkhazia has made it clear that he and Abkhazia bear no ill will towards the Georgian people, but that they view Saakashvili responsible for the present situation and the bloodshed in South Ossetia.  After President Bagapsh met with President Medvedev of Russia this week, President Medvedev said "we have always had and will always have the friendliest feelings for the Georgian people" and "Even the grave conflict that broke out in 2008 will not spoil our relations, I am convinced.  The Saakashvili regime, Georgia's governing regime, is directly responsible for what happened."

The United States has pumped billions into Georgia.  In return, Georgia increased its military spending at the fastest rate in the world and without provocation attacked South Ossetia.  Because of Saakashvili's enmity towards Russia, Mr. Jatar believes that his government is helping jihadists travel from the Middle East to Georgia and from there they are infiltrating Russia.  

Mr. Jatras mentions the US support for the Islamic rebels in Afghanistan against the Soviets 30 years ago and the US support for jihadists in the Balkans in the 1990's.  He wonders if our government has learned anything and will we "repeat the same mistake in the Caucasus?"

Withnail and Corum (Telegraph UK)

As I read Mr. Corum's post "The neo-Tsarist Russian empire is an increasing security problem for the West" in the Telegram, I thought about a British film I saw years ago, Withnail and I.  The main character and his friend, Wtihnail, are two actors struggling to survive in 1969 London.  The film was very funny and eventually became a cult hit.  As I read the post, I found myself repeatedly thinking of Withnail's answer to a statement he found absurd and pretentious:  "What absolute twaddle!"

Of course, there is an American expression that is roughly equal, but I think that Withnail's comment pretty well sums up what I think about Mr. Corum's column, except  that I believe his points are much more dangerously askew than those of Withnail's friend.

I lost count of the number of times that Mr. Corum states conclusively that some future event "will" happen. Even the most seasoned analyst usually writes in less certain terms.  There are too many variables to state with such certainty so many future outcomes.

He describes Russia outside of Moscow and Saint Petersburg as a "Third World" of poverty and misery.  I live in Russia and outside of those two cities.  While it is not Malibu or Park Avenue and there are many problems, it is not the place of Third World misery that he imagines.  He also wonders why Russia has a belief in itself as a great power.  How about the largest land mass in the world?  145 million people with a very important cultural, historical and intellectual legacy? The most natural resources of any nation? 

In Mr. Corum's post, he says "Russia will adopt a more aggressive policy in the Caucasus in regards to Georgia and the two Russian-occupied breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia."  Has Mr. Corum even been to either place?  I have been to Abkhazia and know it well.  Abkhazia is not an occupied nation.  In 1992, Georgia attacked Abkhazia,  Earlier, Georgian leaders made genocidal threats and spoke of the illegitimacy of the Abkhaz in their own land.  After the Georgian Army was driven out, the Russians acted as peacekeepers in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia for 15 years.   Russia actually enforced an economic blockade on Abkhazia until 1999 in deference to Georgia and the CIS.  After years of Georgian threats and the unprovoked attack on South Ossetia  (confirmed by an EU Commission report) by Georgia in 2008, Russia has recognized both nations and has given aid and military protection, including an army base in Abkhazia,  to prevent further Georgian aggression and bloodshed. Abkhazia has a democratically elected government and sets its own course, just as many nations with protective American bases set their own course.  But a double standard is applied to Russia.

Mr. Corum calls Belarus a "satellite state" of Russia, but gives no evidence. Belarus has a different political and economic system than Russia and pursues its own domestic and foreign policy. While there has been cooperation, the recent dairy product and natural gas rows show that Moscow does not call the shots.  I am not endorsing the Communist Belarusian government, only pointing out what is obvious. Mr.Corum also states that Ukraine "will" become a "satellite" of Russia because of the recent Ukrainian election, but he ignores the centuries of shared historical, political, religious, linguistic and familial history of the two nations. I spend a lot of time in Russia and Ukraine and many in both nations have ancestors in the last 2-4 generations from the other. It is difficult for those unfamiliar to understand the special relationship between Russians and Ukrainians.  While Ukraine may turn its orientation more towards Russia, sooner or later that was likely to happen.  It does not necessitate that Ukraine will become a Russian satellite.  But here, as in most of Mr. Corum's claims, there is an entirely different standard applied to Russia.

He sees ill intent on Russia's part in the customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus.  Should Russia not be free to do this, just as the US has joined NAFTA, the WTO and European countries have formed the EU? The Kazakh President believes that the 3 nations will enjoy a 15% increase in GDP by 2015 as a result of the customs union.  But in this, Corum visualizes a neo-Soviet state arising.  

The same holds true for Russia's naval base in Ukraine.  Despite the ties between Russia and Ukraine and the long Russian presence in Crimea, Mr. Corum sees this as evidence of Russia dominating Ukraine.  America has bases in a lot of countries and I don't recall anyone describing Japan or the U.K. as satellites.   In reference to Ukraine, he even calls it " the Ukraine", the common usage of which ended shortly after the Soviet Union dissolved and the Cold War ended.  But then Mr. Corum's mindset is firmly grounded in a Cold War mentality.

In Mr. Corum's view, all about Russia is a zero-sum, Cold War, neo-Tsarist scenario. He talks about the usage of a centuries old Russian symbol, the two-headed eagle as evidence.  However, he ignores what any serious discussion about Russia should not: the invasions and catastrophic, unparalleled losses that inform Russian views.  For 50 years or so American foreign policy was dominated by realpolitik.  American policy-makers, left and right, thought about how their actions would be viewed and the resulting reactions.  However, the neo conservative ideologues who dominated the Bush Administration pursued policies that have severely damaged America's economy, her prestige and resulted in much higher tensions with Russia.   

Russia's leadership  and its population have concerns about encirclement and attack.   For this reason, the American bases in the former Soviet satellites of Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary,those nations acceding to NATO and the proposed bases in Georgia and Central Asia (parts of the former Soviet Union) are a nightmare to the Russians (imagine if Arkansas, Mexico and Puerto Rico had joined the Warsaw Pact).  At the same time, writers like Mr. Corum hypocritically condemn Russia for doing exactly what America is doing: seeking military bases in former Soviet Republics. 

In return for the reunification of Germany, the first Bush Administration promised the Soviet Union there would be no enlargement of NATO east.  Not one inch.  The promise was broken.  I am not sure if it was a good idea to expand east or not, but it certainly is viewed as a "broken promise" by the Russians.  America and its advisors are widely blamed for the post-Soviet economic shocks which led to a huge increase in poverty, the concentration of wealth in a few hands, rising death and falling birth rates.   Richard Cohen has written extensively about how in the Post-Soviet period American triumphalism and broken promises, condescending lectures and demands for unilateral concessions have resulted in an unnecessary and dangerous remilitarizing of American- Russian relations.

The recent decision by the Obama Administration to drop the missile shield alignment in Poland was widely praised in Russia.  As a result, the Russian government has given the U.S. reason to hope they may help apply leverage with Iran. Prominent neo-cons and hawks at the time excoriated the Obama Administration, but paid no attention to the fact that majorities in both Poland and the Czech Republic were in favor of scrapping the plan.  The reason?  They know that encircling and provoking confrontation with Russia is a bigger risk to their security, their economies and energy sources.  it is quite obvious that the Bush Administration lost all leverage and persuasive powers with Russia due to their policy of encirclement and isolation.  But Mr. Corum's prescription is to pour the coals on and double down on a policy that has absolutely failed.  Not only that, but many in Russia think that these policies are evidence of a new Cold War.  Is Russia truly the enemy of the United States?  Or are people like Corum still stuck in  the Cold War paradigm? Or is it just that the military-industrial complex needs to find enemies?  

As an American patriot, I do not like policies that damage our standing in the world and, however well-intentioned ,make it a less safe and more hostile place.  As an American in Russia, I am often asked by Russians "Why does America not want to be friends with Russia?"  I always tell my Russian friends that I have a  fundamental disagreement with my countrymen who support policies that isolate and escalate a new Cold War with Russia.  

Visit to Costa Rusa

Saturday, February 6, 2010, I visited the residential and resort development project, Costa Rusa.  The project sits on the Rusian Black Sea coast about 30 kilometers north of Tuapse.

That night I stayed at the Green Apple Hotel on the grounds of Costa Rusa.  The rooms were very comfortable , with attractive decoration and furniture and featured amenities like big screen televisions and internet access. The staff was very friendly and helpful.  I ate dinner at the restaurant just down the hill from the hotel and was pleased with the food and again impressed by the staff.  Later that evening, Mikhail Andreev my host and the CEO of the development, his wife Olga, Roman Levitskiy, President of Ruport Advertising in Krasnodar and his son and I had a Russian sauna experience.  Afterwards, Mr. Andreev and his wife invited Roman and I for drinks at a nautically themed bar on the resort grounds. The bar faced the sea and had a great view of the tcoastline to the south.  

Outside of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, service is rarely to Western standards in Russia, but clearly the staff has been well-trained at Costa Rusa.  I felt that it was the best of any place I have been to on Russia's Black Sea coastline.  They were uniformly pleasant, helpful and friendly; I would not hesitate to recommend a stay there.  

Sunday, I walked the grounds of the development.  There are about 70 beachfront hectares under lease by the development group.  The forested property slopes from modest elevation down to the sea.  Mr. Andreev showed me the development plans.  The idea is to build upscale housing for about 15,000 residents.  The project is bifurcated into two developments.  The larger portion will include a castle and central residential district with apartments and shopping built in the architectural style of a city of Central Europe.  At distances further from the center, there will be large single family homes.  At the northwest end of the project the other development is mixed use with high-end residential condominiums, a hotel and shopping.  In the sea in front of each development will be a marina for yachts and sailboats. The project is impressive and very ambitious.  I have seen nothing that will rival it in the region. 

I think that building the infrastructure and a planned community makes a lot of sense. Most of the development in this part of Russia occurs in a haphazard way.  Most homes are not built to take advantage of the views and the floor plans are not optimal.  Typically infrastructure is rudimentary and often left to the home owner.  Also, there is not a consistent architectural pattern to construction, so there can be tremendous range in the size, quality and appearance of residences.  Since the Russian Black Sea coastline is both short and very valuable, more attention should be paid to this.  At Costa Rusa, all infrastructure is included in the planning. For several years, I have been talking about the need for this in the Black Sea market.

I am typically not a fan of themed residential development.  I prefer either a development with a series of complimentary styles or at the least architectural parameters that homeowners and merchant builders must satisfy.  This way there standards are kept without excessive homogeneity in design.  Themed developments run the risk of looking dated or simply not being appealing to buyers if the design misses the mark,  Costa Rusa, though, is very attractive to me because the architectural style ls similar to the center of Prague orto Cracow. These cities are popular and should be appealing in the Russian market. It has a town feel; there is no sense of identical tract homes and strip centers.  The other development at Costa Rusa is a large modern resort with windows and architecture designed to take advantage of the seaviews. Both projects are to have high construction standards and modern interior design and European appliances.