Lincoln MItchell and Alexander Cooley's Memorandum to Secretary Clinton

Lincoln MItchell and Alexander Cooley wrote to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on May 1.2010.  They advised a revision in American policy towards Abkhazia.  In their view the U.S. and the European Union have failed to develop a realistic policy with regards to Abkhazia. They rightly point out that Abkhazia is "almost certainly lost to Georgia, possibly for decades".  If America and the West is concerned about Abkhazia being driven into Russia's embrace, letting Georgia determine policy is hardly going to slow the progress in their view.  They feel that Abkhazia is left with no option for economic development and security but with Russia.  Of course, this is true.  Mitchell and Cooley believe that the best policy is a policy of "engagement without recognition" on a political level.  They recommend this along with encouraging Abkhazia's development of other economic links in the Black Sea Region and the development of its coastline.  Finally someone with stature is taking on the status quo and recommending that the U.S. government follow a policy that is in someone's interest besides 

There are points in the memorandum that I disagree with and also some inaccuracies.  It is stated that Abkhazia's statehood is based upon an act of ethnic cleansing.  But, in reality, Abkhaz statehood is based upon a desire for self-determination, not unlike Kosovo and its long history.  The authors fail to make mention of the acts of genocide and cultural desecration against Abkhaz ethnics.  And they say nothing of the approximately 52,000 ethnic Georgians who have returned to Abkhazia or Georgia's harassment as traitors of those who have.  I refer to the Fact Sheet on Abkhazia's Refugee Program.

Cooley and MItchell do not directly address the idea of Abkhazia's sovereignty.  Their letter assumes that Abkhazia ultimately should "belong" to Georgia.  They understand that this is not reality and may never be. So they advocate a change of policy.  I agree with the direction of the proposed policy change.  But why not take a look at the case for Abkhazia's statehood?  They offer no rationale for why Abkhazia should not be independent....

Finally they feel that Abkhazia will eventually be absorbed by Russia if left on its own.  I disagree wholeheartedly with this.  Abkhazia is charting its own course.  That is clear to any observer who spends time there.

Despite the problems with the memorandum, I think is is a good sign when influential foreign policy thinkers advocate a change of American policy in the Caucasus.  Their conclusions are logical.  How can problems be resolved without political engagement?   Abkhazia should be encouraged to develop economically,too.   Economic stability and international political contacts are in the best interests of the people and the best guarantor of peace and stability in the region.  I hope that the both the U.S. government and the E.U, adopt the policy.  It would be a great step.

World Russia Forum Washington D.C. April 25-27, 2010

April 25- 27, 2010, I attended and spoke at the World Russia Forum http://www.russiahouse.org/wrf/wrf2010.html in Washington D.C.  Monday the 26th a session was held at the Hart Senate Building.  That evening the Russian Embassy hosted a cocktail party.  April 27th, Nadir Bitiev, Assistant to the President of the Republic of Abkhazia and I spoke at the Forum.  That day's event was held at George Washington University.  Nadir gave an overview on Abkhazia and the opportunities for outside investment.  Afterwards, we took questions from the audience for about an hour.  The questions revealed the audience to be well-informed about Abkhazia.  One of the most interesting things to me was the very strong reaction that most of the Russians have to Abkhazia.  Several of the audience spoke about Abkhazia in the same way that an American might speak about Hawaii or even Tahiti. There is clearly a strong cultural memory of Abkhazia as a subtropical tourist paradise for Russians.

Immediately after the session, I had the opportunity to speak to Nicholas V. Sluchevsky, Chairman of the non-profit Stolypin Memorial Center.  He had interesting insights into Russian business and the differences in business practices in the Caucasus, specifically as to how Abkhazia's international isolation and their desire for integration makes it safer to invest in for western investors than many would assume.

I was grateful to have the audience and the opportunity to speak about Abkhazia.  Thanks to Edward Lozansky for inviting me to speak. Nadir was interviewed several times afterwards and we were jointly interviewed by Joshua Kucera of EurasiaNet.org.  

Russian Northern Palmira Navy Band performs at the Lincoln Memorial, April 25, 2010

Erratic Saakashvili and Georgia's "War of the Worlds" Broadcast

Last Saturday, Georgia's Imedi Television station broadcast a 20 minute program that claimed a Russian attack of Georgia was underway.  Although there was a disclaimer at the beginning, throughout the program there was no announcement or banner that it was false.  The result was widespread panic in Georgia and an increase in miscarriages and deaths from heart attacks.  The program claimed that President Mikhail Saakashvili had been assassinated and that two members of the political opposition former parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze and former Prime Minister Zurab Noghaidel were aiding the Russians.  

It does not look like the timing was a coincidence.  Recently the two opposition leaders had traveled to Moscow and met with Russian leaders.  President Saakashvili has been extremely critical of them.  The television station that broadcast the false report is run by President Saakashvili's former chief of staff.  Most observers believe that Georgia's leadership either had direct involvement or knowledge in the broadcast.  Mr. Saakashvili did not claim responsibility for the report, but did not distance himself from it either.  He called it "close to the real situation."

The regime in Tbilisi has seen its human rights record deteriorate and there are many instances of intimidation of political opponents.  But last Saturday's program calling the two prominent opposition leaders traitors has to be seen as a direct threat.  Using these kinds of tactics to scare the population and intimidate or silence opposition is hardly the mark of President who values democratic principles.  

President Saakashvili again has exposed himself as a desperate demagogue who is willing to go to war, imprison political opponents and use the kind of political propaganda that dictatorships in the last century would have been proud of to achieve his political goals.  The United States should offer no aid to Georgia except humanitarian.  And any military aid or advice should be absolutely out of the question until Georgia has peaceful and responsible leadership that respects its citizens, renounces violence against its neighbors and does not use the media and police to attack and intimidate its political opposition.

Krasnodar Krai (Region) Ranked 2nd in Russia for Investment Potential

The Expert R A Rating Agency, in December 2009, analyzed all 89 of the regions of the Russian Federation for investment opportunity. The agency identified areas of risk including, among others, economic, political and legal. They also looked at the human infrastructure, natural resources and the consumer base of each region as well as other variables.  It is not a surprise to me that Krasnodar Krai ranked 2nd of all the regions for investment potential.  Of course these judgments are subjective, but I was drawn to the region some years ago for some of the very same reasons that Expert R A ranked Krasnodar Krai so highly.  I saw a region with a strong agricultural and agricultural processing base, shipping, tourism with the Black Sea and the Caucasus Mountains (including the 2014 Winter Olympiad in Russia), as well as energy and an increasing investment in infrastructure to support economic growth and tourism.  I think that Krasnodar Krai will attract more attention due to its comparatively mild climate and excellent opportunities for investment for some time.  Many investors have seen Russia as Moscow first and foremost, followed by Saint Petersburg and then everywhere else.  I think that the spotlight will shift in part to Krasnodar Krai as the economy rebounds from the grips of the crisis.

Krasnodar Krai has about 5.1 million inhabitants and just over 39,000 square miles.  

Return to the U.S. and Facebook Fan Page for Abkhazia

I returned to the U.S. Monday, March 8.  I spent Women's Day in Russia in airports and airplanes before landing at LAX in the evening.  The last few days I have been busy meeting with people interested in my Black Sea Region projects and recovering from jet lag.

The new fan page for the Republic of Abkhazia is available.  Please join Facebook and become a fan of the Republic of Abkhazia. You will see news, content, links, video and information about events posted there.

http://www.facebook.com/republic.abkhazia?ref=ts

Also, the blog is now available in Russian and we have redesigned the site to be more user-friendly and attractive.